Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.2% | 91.8% | +13.3 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +14 (115-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 11-19 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell * | 34 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 28 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 28 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 38 | 11-22 | 4-9 | 6-9 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 32 | 7-10 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 30 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein * | 29 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins * | 28 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 27 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 20 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jaylin Williams | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Alex Caruso | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dillon Jones | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter