Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.9% | 59.1% | +2.0 | ✗ (4.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -2 (103-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 13-21 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 30 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 4-15 | 0-7 | 3-5 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware * | 34 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 23 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 32 | 7-14 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 24 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 22 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell * | 35 | 8-22 | 1-10 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Chris Paul * | 32 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 27 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Charles Bassey * | 27 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Stephon Castle * | 23 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 7-10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Julian Champagnie | 17 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 9 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter