Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.2% | 56.8% | +1.5 | ✓ (27.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +29 (125-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kel'el Ware * | 35 | 9-15 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 6-19 | 4-13 | 5-5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 28 | 4-13 | 3-12 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson * | 13 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 25 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 21 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 21 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard * | 35 | 9-21 | 5-14 | 6-6 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 30 | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 34 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 31 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 26 | - | |
| Taurean Prince * | 25 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Andre Jackson Jr. * | 14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 26 | 7-11 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 12 | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 21 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | |
| Ryan Rollins | 14 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Chris Livingston | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Stanley Umude | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - | |
| Tyler Smith | 3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| AJ Johnson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter