Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (19.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +21 (128-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell * | 34 | 8-20 | 4-10 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 31 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 30 | 8-18 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Stephon Castle * | 27 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Chris Paul * | 27 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Julian Champagnie | 22 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson | 17 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Charles Bassey | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Sidy Cissoko | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Blake Wesley | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 8-12 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 33 | 10-19 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 30 | 7-14 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 23 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter