Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.9% | 42.1% | -1.7 | ✓ (18.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -20 (113-133). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 37 | 12-24 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 30 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokić * | 30 | 9-12 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 28 | 4-13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Russell Westbrook * | 26 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun * | 26 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Julian Strawther | 25 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon | 22 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| DeAndre Jordan | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Hunter Tyson | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| PJ Hall | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jalen Pickett | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 10-17 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 30 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 24 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 15 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter