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2025-01-16

Model Predictions

Model Miami Heat Los Angeles Lakers Spread Result
Elo 48.7% 51.3% -
Bradley-Terry 34.7% 65.3% -
Margin 44.7% 55.3% +1.2 (7.8 off)
Pythagorean 47.0% 53.0% -
Efficiency 46.4% 53.6% -
Adjusted Efficiency 44.8% 55.2% -
Log Adjusted 44.9% 55.1% -
Points Off/Def 41.6% 58.4% -

Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +9 (117-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Miami Heat

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Tyler Herro * 38 12-18 7-12 3-3 4 3 1 0 34 24 -
Bam Adebayo * 31 3-7 1-3 3-4 4 5 1 0 10 13 -
Haywood Highsmith * 29 5-10 2-4 0-0 3 1 0 2 12 8 -
Terry Rozier * 24 3-7 0-3 0-0 2 2 0 0 6 3 -
Jaime Jaquez Jr. * 24 3-7 2-4 3-3 5 3 1 0 11 13 -
Nikola Jović 32 4-7 2-3 2-2 4 8 0 1 12 18 -
Duncan Robinson 22 2-7 0-4 3-3 2 1 0 1 7 4 -
Alec Burks 20 3-3 2-2 0-0 2 0 0 0 8 7 -
Kel'el Ware 17 4-7 0-1 0-0 11 2 0 2 8 16 -

Los Angeles Lakers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
LeBron James * 38 9-15 3-6 1-2 5 9 2 0 22 23 -
Max Christie * 37 6-12 3-7 1-2 3 0 2 1 16 10 -
Anthony Davis * 36 10-21 1-3 1-2 11 4 2 2 22 20 -
Austin Reaves * 35 5-9 2-3 2-2 3 14 3 0 14 25 -
Rui Hachimura * 33 9-15 2-5 3-4 8 1 1 0 23 18 -
Gabe Vincent 25 6-9 2-5 0-0 1 4 1 1 14 12 -
Jaxson Hayes 14 2-3 0-0 0-0 1 0 1 0 4 3 -
Dalton Knecht 13 0-4 0-4 2-2 2 1 0 0 2 1 -
Shake Milton 5 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -

* = starter