Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | +5.0 | ✗ (21.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors -16 (98-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 32 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 9-14 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 28 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 26 | 4-14 | 3-9 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 23 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 34 | 8-17 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 24 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 21 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayce Jackson-Davis * | 35 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Stephen Curry * | 33 | 11-22 | 8-17 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 31 | - | - | |
| Dennis Schröder * | 28 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 26 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 24 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 26 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | - | - | |
| Buddy Hield | 23 | 4-12 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Lindy Waters III | 18 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Moses Moody | 15 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Gui Santos | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Pat Spencer | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter