Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.9% | 44.1% | -1.3 | ✗ (6.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +5 (123-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 48 | 11-25 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 14 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 45 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 45 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 29 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 44 | 6-19 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 18 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 41 | 6-15 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 24 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 20 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 50 | 7-16 | 2-2 | 5-7 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 38 | - | |
| Malik Monk * | 48 | 8-25 | 1-9 | 6-7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 11 | - | |
| Keon Ellis * | 48 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 21 | - | |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 46 | 12-26 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 12 | - | |
| Keegan Murray * | 43 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 23 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Kevin Huerter | 15 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - | |
| Devin Carter | 9 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - | |
| Alex Len | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter