Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✗ (15.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -13 (115-128). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner * | 34 | 8-15 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 16 | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 34 | 13-21 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 35 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 31 | 8-13 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 20 | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin * | 29 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - | |
| Obi Toppin | 20 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 19 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Jarace Walker | 13 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Johnny Furphy | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 26 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 19 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 18 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 18 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 29 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 25 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 21 | 9-11 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 19 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 12 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 13 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter