Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | +6.9 | ✗ (10.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -4 (100-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 38 | 6-19 | 0-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 37 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 19 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 10-17 | 3-7 | 4-7 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 25 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 14 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 30 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 22 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 17 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks * | 39 | 8-20 | 5-12 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 38 | 6-17 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 34 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 30 | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 34 | 6-20 | 1-8 | 6-7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 26 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - | |
| Amen Thompson | 31 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - | |
| Steven Adams | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - | |
| Cam Whitmore | 11 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter