Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | -0.1 | ✗ (10.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +10 (120-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 38 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 36 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 15 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 8-8 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 30 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 21 | 4-12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 20 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 19 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young * | 36 | 3-13 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 15 | - | |
| Jalen Johnson * | 35 | 13-20 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 28 | - | |
| Zaccharie Risacher * | 27 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - | |
| Vít Krejčí * | 23 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Clint Capela * | 21 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter | 28 | 8-14 | 4-7 | 6-7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 20 | - | |
| Garrison Mathews | 27 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - | |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 26 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | - | |
| Keaton Wallace | 13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
* = starter