Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.0% | 59.0% | +2.0 | ✓ (5.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic +7 (121-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 7-17 | 3-9 | 5-7 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 8-15 | 0-4 | 7-11 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 16 | - | |
| Dru Smith * | 26 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Nikola Jović * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 33 | 8-15 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 15 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 36 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 12-12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 20 | - | |
| Goga Bitadze * | 31 | 8-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 26 | - | |
| Tristan da Silva * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Anthony Black * | 18 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 28 | 13-25 | 2-8 | 7-7 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 29 | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 23 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - | |
| Trevelin Queen | 17 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - | |
| Jonathan Isaac | 17 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Jett Howard | 12 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - | |
| Caleb Houstan | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter