Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.0% | 23.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.2% | 14.8% | -9.6 | ✓ (2.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.2% | 18.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (97-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 37 | 10-25 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 35 | 12-25 | 4-7 | 5-7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein * | 33 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 32 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Cason Wallace * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Alex Caruso | 25 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 16 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Ajay Mitchell | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 11-24 | 3-10 | 3-5 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 4-14 | 3-11 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 24 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 30 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 30 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 23 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 19 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter