Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.0% | 61.0% | +2.5 | ✓ (38.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +41 (134-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis * | 31 | 3-14 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| LeBron James * | 29 | 12-18 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 25 | - | |
| D'Angelo Russell * | 29 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | - | |
| Rui Hachimura * | 26 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - | |
| Dalton Knecht * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| Max Christie | 26 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 24 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Cam Reddish | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Christian Koloko | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| Armel Traoré | 12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Maxwell Lewis | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 8-12 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 29 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 26 | 11-19 | 9-16 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 22 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 25 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 19 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 16 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 14 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 8 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter