Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.1% | 84.9% | +9.5 | ✓ (9.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +19 (108-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 36 | 5-14 | 0-3 | 9-12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 6-19 | 2-10 | 5-6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 34 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 6-18 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 22 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 12 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Keshad Johnson | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 36 | 7-21 | 3-12 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 31 | 8-21 | 4-11 | 9-10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 31 | 7-14 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Luke Kornet * | 27 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jordan Walsh * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 32 | 10-17 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Drew Peterson | 26 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Neemias Queta | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Baylor Scheierman | 10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| JD Davison | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaden Springer | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter