Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.3% | 46.7% | -0.7 | ✗ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +3 (119-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 9-16 | 6-12 | 7-7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 27 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 21 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 28 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 18 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 9 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 37 | 15-20 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 37 | - | - | |
| Ochai Agbaji * | 37 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 35 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Ja'Kobe Walter * | 17 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 28 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 15 | 3-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jamison Battle | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jamal Shead | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter