Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | +2.9 | ✓ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (123-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington * | 39 | 7-14 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 39 | 9-21 | 3-12 | 6-7 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Dereck Lively II * | 30 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Klay Thompson * | 30 | 5-12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | - | - | |
| Quentin Grimes * | 26 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Naji Marshall | 30 | 8-16 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 27 | 1-12 | 0-9 | 5-5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford | 20 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 9 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 42 | 8-25 | 1-10 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 38 | 11-17 | 0-0 | 11-16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 33 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 18 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 17 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 36 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 30 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 18 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter