Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.4% | 72.6% | +5.4 | ✓ (7.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +13 (135-122). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 40 | 10-21 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 7-18 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 34 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 10 | - | |
| Nikola Jović * | 19 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 35 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 21 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 20 | 7-12 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 15 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić * | 39 | 11-13 | 1-1 | 7-7 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 44 | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 36 | 8-15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 18 | - | |
| Christian Braun * | 35 | 7-9 | 3-4 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 21 | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 34 | 9-17 | 4-10 | 6-6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 21 | - | |
| Peyton Watson * | 32 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Julian Strawther | 24 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - | |
| Russell Westbrook | 24 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | - | |
| Hunter Tyson | 9 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter