Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | +1.1 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +3 (115-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 9-15 | 5-9 | 5-5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 22 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 5-21 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 31 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - | |
| Nikola Jović * | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 30 | 7-8 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 20 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 21 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Alec Burks | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 14 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker * | 38 | 9-17 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 18 | - | |
| Kevin Durant * | 37 | 13-23 | 4-11 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 22 | - | |
| Jusuf Nurkić * | 33 | 6-8 | 3-3 | 5-6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 34 | - | |
| Tyus Jones * | 32 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Bradley Beal * | 31 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Grayson Allen | 21 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | - | |
| Mason Plumlee | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Ryan Dunn | 9 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
* = starter