Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.1% | 14.9% | -9.6 | ✓ (10.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 81.9% | 18.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.9% | 20.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -20 (98-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 31 | 4-13 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 30 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 12-24 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović * | 22 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 19 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 28 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 16 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Carrington * | 37 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bilal Coulibaly * | 33 | 8-12 | 2-2 | 4-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole * | 30 | 8-18 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Alexandre Sarr * | 27 | 7-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kyshawn George * | 26 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - | - | |
| Corey Kispert | 30 | 1-10 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Johnny Davis | 17 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 16 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jared Butler | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | 3 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Anthony Gill | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter