Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.5% | 31.5% | -4.3 | ✓ (2.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -2 (125-127). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić * | 43 | 18-27 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 40 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 42 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 6-8 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 39 | 6-20 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 39 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun * | 39 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Julian Strawther | 22 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Russell Westbrook | 17 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dario Šarić | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Pöltl * | 40 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Gradey Dick * | 36 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 35 | 9-19 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell * | 35 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| RJ Barrett * | 28 | 9-21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Ochai Agbaji | 28 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jamal Shead | 18 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jamison Battle | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| D.J. Carton | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter