Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.6% | 33.4% | -3.8 | ✓ (4.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.9% | 26.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -8 (106-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 11-17 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 6-17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 31 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović * | 29 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 24 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 15 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball * | 36 | 9-22 | 2-10 | 7-8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Miles Bridges * | 34 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Nick Richards * | 34 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| Seth Curry * | 29 | 6-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Cody Martin * | 27 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tre Mann | 31 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams | 19 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Vasilije Micić | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Tidjane Salaün | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Moussa Diabaté | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
* = starter