Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.5% | 59.5% | +2.1 | ✗ (5.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (103-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard * | 37 | 10-17 | 8-13 | 9-9 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 37 | - | - | |
| Taurean Prince * | 31 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 29 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | - | - | |
| AJ Green * | 28 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Andre Jackson Jr. * | 26 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 23 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 21 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 5-15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 16 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 11-13 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 22 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier | 20 | 7-9 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 6 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter