Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.0% | 56.0% | +1.3 | ✗ (14.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -13 (111-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 10-17 | 2-3 | 8-9 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 6-16 | 2-9 | 6-6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 24 | 6-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 23 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 12 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 29 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 24 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 23 | 2-9 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam * | 29 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Ben Sheppard * | 29 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 28 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 28 | 7-14 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jarace Walker | 24 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Obi Toppin | 21 | 8-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 17 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Enrique Freeman | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Quenton Jackson | 10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Johnny Furphy | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter