Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | +5.1 | ✓ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +2 (123-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 43 | 8-13 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 23 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 42 | 14-27 | 10-17 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 40 | 30 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 39 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 36 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - | |
| Kevin Love * | 9 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 35 | 6-16 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - | |
| Pelle Larsson | 13 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Kel'el Ware | 9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Nikola Jović | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris * | 40 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - | |
| Jaden Ivey * | 40 | 8-18 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 18 | - | |
| Cade Cunningham * | 37 | 6-15 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 24 | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 21 | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 18 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - | |
| Malik Beasley | 35 | 7-17 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 11 | - | |
| Simone Fontecchio | 23 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 | - | |
| Ronald Holland II | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter