Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.3% | 46.7% | -0.7 | ✓ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -9 (103-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 7-16 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson * | 33 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 26 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 9-19 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 16 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 31 | 9-16 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 24 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 27 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 30 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 14 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby * | 39 | 8-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 35 | 9-13 | 1-1 | 11-11 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 28 | - | |
| Dennis Schroder * | 34 | 4-18 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 33 | 5-17 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 27 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 25 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - | |
| Otto Porter Jr. | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 13 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Malachi Flynn | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter