Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | +4.3 | ✓ (10.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +15 (118-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ochai Agbaji * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Javon Freeman-Liberty * | 32 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - | |
| Gradey Dick * | 29 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 23 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 22 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Garrett Temple | 24 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - | |
| Jalen McDaniels | 23 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - | |
| Jordan Nwora | 20 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 16 | - | |
| Bruce Brown | 20 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - | |
| Malik Williams | 11 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 21 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 24 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 23 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 19 | 8-10 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 19 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 6-12 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 18 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 28 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 24 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 23 | 8-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 20 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 7 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Cole Swider | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter