Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | +4.3 | ✓ (17.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +22 (125-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 32 | 13-18 | 1-4 | 8-10 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Gradey Dick * | 30 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Immanuel Quickley * | 30 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 28 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Ochai Agbaji | 25 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bruce Brown | 21 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Malik Williams | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Javon Freeman-Liberty | 15 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Garrett Temple | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jordan Nwora | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 29 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 28 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 26 | 9-18 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 8-10 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 32 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 19 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 18 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cole Swider | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter