Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | +2.9 | ✗ (21.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -19 (92-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving * | 37 | 10-15 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 35 | 9-23 | 4-15 | 7-8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 34 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 25 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 25 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 18 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dante Exum | 18 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 38 | 5-14 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 7-7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 23 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 24 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 18 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 18 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 11 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cole Swider | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter