Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | -0.1 | ✓ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -6 (111-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 47 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 20 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 47 | 13-25 | 4-13 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 17 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 44 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 10-13 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 31 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 39 | 8-12 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 20 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 27 | 0-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 35 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 21 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 20 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray * | 48 | 12-31 | 3-12 | 2-2 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 28 | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 46 | 10-23 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic * | 44 | 4-17 | 1-11 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -1 | - | |
| Clint Capela * | 36 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Jalen Johnson * | 23 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 18 | - | |
| Vit Krejci | 32 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 21 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Garrison Mathews | 21 | 4-10 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - | |
| Kobe Bufkin | 10 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter