Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.0% | 56.0% | +1.3 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +2 (117-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 38 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 12-12 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-18 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 24 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 12 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 35 | 8-10 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 31 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith * | 39 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 37 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 32 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 32 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 24 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 26 | 11-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Ben Sheppard | 19 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Obi Toppin | 15 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jalen Smith | 10 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter