Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 68.8% | 31.2% | -4.4 | ✗ (15.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +11 (147-136). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 44 | 9-21 | 2-8 | 4-6 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 42 | 9-14 | 5-6 | 6-7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 40 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 39 | 6-15 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Amen Thompson * | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock Jr. | 23 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Cam Whitmore | 19 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green | 17 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jock Landale | 15 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Nate Hinton | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 45 | 12-21 | 4-10 | 9-9 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 37 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 44 | 15-25 | 3-8 | 15-17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 48 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 43 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 25 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dante Exum | 35 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 30 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 17 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter