Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | +6.9 | ✗ (21.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -15 (104-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 26 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 28 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 24 | 4-10 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 29 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 26 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 24 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 19 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green * | 37 | 6-18 | 2-9 | 7-8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 36 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 36 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 32 | 5-12 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 16 | - | |
| Jeff Green * | 21 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Jock Landale | 26 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - | |
| Cam Whitmore | 20 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Reggie Bullock Jr. | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Nate Williams | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Jermaine Samuels Jr. | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Nate Hinton | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter