Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.4% | 43.6% | -1.4 | ✓ (19.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -21 (92-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kuminga * | 31 | 8-13 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - | |
| Stephen Curry * | 31 | 7-15 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 30 | 7-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 | - | |
| Klay Thompson * | 30 | 11-20 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 16 | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 27 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | - | |
| Chris Paul | 23 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | |
| Brandin Podziemski | 22 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Kevon Looney | 18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Gary Payton II | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Moses Moody | 6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Gui Santos | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Jerome Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Lester Quinones | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 10-21 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 32 | 7-18 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 30 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 25 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Patty Mills * | 17 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 34 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 29 | 6-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 18 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Cole Swider | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter