Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 62.7% | 37.3% | -2.9 | ✗ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +2 (107-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 38 | 6-16 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 37 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 35 | 7-20 | 2-5 | 7-7 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 33 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 31 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 19 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 14 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 12 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 40 | 12-27 | 5-11 | 8-10 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 37 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 39 | 9-23 | 4-11 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 30 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 24 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 24 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Dereck Lively II | 23 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 20 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dante Exum | 17 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter