Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | +5.1 | ✗ (8.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.3% | 25.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.4% | 25.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -3 (101-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 9-13 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 35 | 8-20 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 10-15 | 7-12 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 24 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 34 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 30 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 9 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Stewart * | 35 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 34 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - | |
| Cade Cunningham * | 32 | 8-19 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 29 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Jaden Ivey * | 24 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Evan Fournier | 31 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 12 | - | |
| Stanley Umude | 18 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - | |
| Marcus Sasser | 17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - | |
| James Wiseman | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
* = starter