Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | +5.1 | ✗ (18.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.3% | 25.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.4% | 25.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -13 (95-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 33 | 5-15 | 0-5 | 8-11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 6-14 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 31 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 10-14 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 24 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 33 | 8-14 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 17 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 15 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Stewart * | 37 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - | |
| Jaden Ivey * | 37 | 3-14 | 2-9 | 6-6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Simone Fontecchio * | 34 | 9-16 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 15 | - | |
| Jalen Duren * | 33 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 25 | - | |
| Cade Cunningham * | 31 | 5-15 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - | |
| Marcus Sasser | 23 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Evan Fournier | 15 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| James Wiseman | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Stanley Umude | 10 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - | |
| Malachi Flynn | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Tosan Evbuomwan | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter