Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.9% | 42.1% | -1.7 | ✓ (10.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -12 (88-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 37 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 33 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 3-6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 33 | 9-16 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 31 | 5-14 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 24 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 22 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 20 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 18 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 12 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 6-16 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-15 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 5-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 28 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 13 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter