Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.7% | 80.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.2% | 91.8% | +13.3 | ✓ (6.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +7 (107-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 8-16 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 22 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 32 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 29 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 28 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 31 | 10-13 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 21 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 30 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 15 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 35 | 13-25 | 2-7 | 9-11 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 26 | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 33 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 30 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - | |
| Chet Holmgren * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 23 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 19 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 19 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - | |
| Jaylin Williams | 17 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - | |
| Gordon Hayward | 17 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Cason Wallace | 14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter