Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | +0.7 | ✓ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +6 (114-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 39 | 10-17 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 5-14 | 0-2 | 4-8 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 7-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 15 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 32 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 39 | 12-24 | 7-13 | 4-4 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Kyrie Irving * | 36 | 9-19 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 29 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 21 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Dereck Lively II | 23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 20 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dante Exum | 17 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5-5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - |
* = starter