Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.4% | 72.6% | +5.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +6 (103-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 7-17 | 1-4 | 6-9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 8-18 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 32 | 6-15 | 1-8 | 6-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 28 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 38 | 12-23 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 30 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 38 | 6-15 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 37 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 34 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 14 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Reggie Jackson | 29 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Peyton Watson | 15 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
* = starter