Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.9% | 44.1% | -1.3 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings -11 (110-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 40 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 38 | 1-11 | 0-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 37 | 12-17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright * | 35 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 28 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 15 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Cole Swider | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 40 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 38 | 13-24 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter * | 37 | 5-15 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Keegan Murray * | 35 | 10-14 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 19 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Malik Monk | 20 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 20 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Chris Duarte | 16 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter