Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | New Orleans Pelicans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 76.0% | 24.0% | -6.3 | ✓ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New Orleans Pelicans -11 (95-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 18 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 31 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 8-12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 30 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 20 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 30 | 6-14 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 19 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 16 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Jones * | 37 | 8-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 17 | - | |
| Zion Williamson * | 35 | 9-22 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 18 | - | |
| Trey Murphy III * | 31 | 2-12 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 24 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - | |
| CJ McCollum * | 14 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - | |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Jordan Hawkins | 22 | 4-17 | 3-12 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | - | |
| Jose Alvarado | 18 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 17 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | - | |
| Naji Marshall | 12 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter