Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✓ (22.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +23 (116-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell * | 31 | 4-16 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 27 | 10-21 | 2-6 | 4-5 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 26 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan * | 24 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones * | 20 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Julian Champagnie * | 18 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Blake Wesley | 27 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins | 20 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson | 20 | 1-11 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham | 20 | 7-11 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Cedi Osman | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Devonte' Graham | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving * | 32 | 15-22 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 34 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 31 | 11-20 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 27 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 22 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Josh Green * | 18 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 26 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jaden Hardy | 20 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dereck Lively II | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Brandon Williams | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| A.J. Lawson | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter