Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.2% | 56.8% | +1.5 | ✗ (27.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -26 (97-123). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 27 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 30 | 8-13 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 22 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 30 | 7-16 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 8-12 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 22 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 24 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 23 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 24 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Alondes Williams | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Cole Swider | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 33 | 11-18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 26 | - | |
| Damian Lillard * | 32 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 | - | |
| Malik Beasley * | 27 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 23 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 25 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 24 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | |
| AJ Green | 14 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - | |
| Patrick Beverley | 12 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Andre Jackson Jr. | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter