Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.4% | 25.6% | -5.9 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.3% | 20.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (106-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 38 | 11-20 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 27 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 37 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 37 | 8-16 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 15 | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 35 | 5-8 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 31 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 7-9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 25 | - | |
| Al Horford | 24 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 15 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 14 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 10-21 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 35 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-18 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 25 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 28 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 24 | 6-16 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 32 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 15 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter