Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | +1.6 | ✓ (10.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (116-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell * | 32 | 8-18 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones * | 31 | 7-11 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Sochan * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Victor Wembanyama * | 27 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Julian Champagnie * | 19 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Cedi Osman | 21 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Blake Wesley | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham | 8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 10-15 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 28 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 24 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 26 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 18 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 16 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter