Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.7% | 57.3% | +1.6 | ✓ (24.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +26 (121-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner * | 35 | 5-15 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Paolo Banchero * | 34 | 7-16 | 1-4 | 8-12 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. * | 27 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jalen Suggs * | 27 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Markelle Fultz * | 27 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gary Harris | 19 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Moritz Wagner | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Joe Ingles | 15 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Cole Anthony | 13 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Isaac | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Anthony Black | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Caleb Houstan | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chuma Okeke | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 9-12 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 31 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 26 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 24 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 27 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 23 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 21 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 15 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter