Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 85.1% | 14.9% | -9.6 | ✓ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -8 (102-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 9-13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 6-19 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 30 | 2-13 | 0-6 | 11-11 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 15 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 28 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 24 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 15 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma * | 36 | 5-16 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Deni Avdija * | 34 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole * | 32 | 6-21 | 2-14 | 2-3 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Corey Kispert | 31 | 10-18 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 25 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Landry Shamet | 13 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Johnny Davis | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Anthony Gill | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter