Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.0% | 71.0% | +4.9 | ✓ (4.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +9 (115-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Murray * | 38 | 12-18 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 33 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter * | 38 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 37 | 7-14 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 36 | 4-16 | 1-8 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 36 | 4-13 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 17 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Malik Monk | 14 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| JaVale McGee | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kessler Edwards | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 10-14 | 2-3 | 9-12 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 29 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 27 | 9-15 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 24 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 13 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter